OIL
By Olamilekan Abayomi
Nigeria’s crude export earnings surged to about ₦12.8 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, marking a notable rebound from the previous quarter and a modest 4.5 % dip compared with the same period last year. The figure, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), underscores the continued dominance of oil in the country’s export mix, accounting for roughly 56 % of total export receipts.
In addition to crude, other petroleum products contributed another ₦7.01 trillion, pushing the overall mineral‑fuel export tally to just over ₦20 trillion for the quarter. This combined total represented close to 59 % of Nigeria’s entire merchandise trade, which the NBS reported at about ₦38.9 trillion, highlighting the heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues to drive the trade balance.
The quarter‑on‑quarter gain of about 7 % was driven largely by a modest uptick in both crude prices and output, even as global oil markets remained volatile. Analysts point to a slight easing of OPEC‑plus production cuts and a modest recovery in demand from major Asian importers as key factors that helped lift export values despite lingering geopolitical tensions.
On the non‑oil front, the report noted a striking 130 % year‑on‑year increase in raw‑material shipments, suggesting that diversification efforts are beginning to show some traction. However, the overall share of non‑oil exports remains relatively small, leaving the economy still vulnerable to swings in the oil sector.
The surge in crude export revenue has immediate implications for the naira, providing a stronger inflow of foreign exchange that could help shore up the currency against the backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures. At the same time, policymakers are under renewed pressure to channel windfall revenues into productive infrastructure and social programs rather than relying on short‑term fiscal fixes.
Looking ahead, the NBS cautions that the outlook hinges on both external oil market dynamics and the effectiveness of domestic policies aimed at boosting non‑oil exports. While the Q3 figures offer a bright spot, sustaining growth will require continued reforms, investment in value‑added sectors, and prudent management of oil windfalls to cushion the economy against future price shocks.
