Dangote Truck
Abayomi Susan
Petrol prices in Nigeria may soon face renewed upward pressure following a sharp surge in global crude oil prices, a development that is already driving up the cost of refined petroleum products across international markets.
The recent spike in crude prices has been fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and mounting uncertainty within the global energy market, pushing oil prices to their highest levels since 2022. As a result, the prices of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel have continued to climb worldwide, raising concerns about the potential impact on domestic fuel prices in Nigeria.
Industry analysts say the rally has been largely driven by worsening tensions in the Middle East and tightening supply conditions among major oil-producing nations. These factors have combined to increase volatility across global energy markets, with refined petroleum products recording sustained price increases in recent weeks.
Crude oil, the primary raw material used in petrol production, has remained on a strong upward trajectory, particularly following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most strategic oil shipping routes through which nearly 20 percent of global crude supply is transported. The effective shutdown and disruptions along the route have reportedly left several oil tankers stranded, further tightening supply and intensifying price pressures globally.
Consequently, the average international price of petrol has risen to approximately $1.5 per litre, reflecting the sustained impact of elevated crude prices and ongoing geopolitical risks.
Although Nigeria currently operates a deregulated fuel pricing regime, the country still ranks among the lowest-priced petrol markets globally, with PMS selling at an average of about $0.9 per litre. However, energy experts warn that if global crude prices remain elevated for an extended period, domestic pump prices may inevitably rise in response to higher import and production costs.
Analysts note that Nigeria’s relative pricing advantage has been supported largely by improved domestic refining capacity, especially increased supply from Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited, which has helped stabilize fuel availability and cushion the immediate impact of rising international market prices.
Globally, fuel prices remain significantly higher in several advanced economies. Hong Kong currently records one of the highest petrol prices in the world at about $4.2 per litre. Other countries with elevated fuel prices include the Netherlands at roughly $2.7 per litre, Switzerland at $2.4, France at $2.3, and the United Kingdom at around $2.1 per litre.
Across Africa, several nations are also grappling with high fuel costs due to heavy dependence on imported refined products, currency depreciation, and supply constraints. Malawi currently ranks among the world’s most expensive petrol markets at approximately $3.8 per litre, while Morocco averages around $1.7 per litre. Petrol prices in Seychelles, Kenya, and Cameroon hover close to $1.5 per litre, while Ghana, Lesotho, and South Africa average about $1.4 per litre.
