By Ola Wale
The World Bank has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth rate projection for 2026 to 4.4%, citing a continued expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output. This growth is expected to be driven by economic reforms, including tax system changes, and prudent monetary policy, which will support activity, improve investor sentiment, and reduce inflation.
In 2025, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.2%, driven by strong performance in services, non-oil industries, and improvements in oil production and agriculture. The country’s external position has also strengthened, with foreign reserves exceeding $42 billion and a current account surplus rising to 6.1% of GDP .
The growth forecast is underpinned by a pickup in oil production, expected to rise from 1.4 million barrels per day in 2024 to 1.6 million in 2026. Agriculture is also expected to rebound, driven by improved weather conditions and policy reforms.
The World Bank’s forecast is a positive sign for Nigeria’s economic prospects, but it also notes that sustaining this growth will require addressing long-standing structural challenges, such as poverty and food insecurity. Nigeria’s per capita income remains low, and about 40% of the population lives below the poverty line.
The Nigerian government has implemented several reforms to boost economic growth, including the removal of fuel subsidies and unification of foreign exchange rates. These reforms are expected to improve investor confidence and support economic diversification.
